The
US withdrawal from Afghanistan, coupled with the closure of U.S. military base
in Kyrgyzstan greatly reduces American influence over Central and South Asia. Therefore
the members of the region that benefited from American alliance will have to
form further alliances to reach their common goals, such as containing the Taliban
and jihadists, and stopping drug trafficking.
Yet the issue of containing the Taliban is not
so clear for the most important actor in the region: Pakistan. Before the US involvement,
Pakistan was the dominant power in Afghanistan, and used its neighbor as a
means to reach its most important foreign policy goal, elimination of India
from Kashmir. Having close ties with Pashtun
Taliban, Pakistan used Afghanistan to recruit militia and considered
Afghanistan a potential point of retreat during an Indian invasion. As the
American invasion toppled the Taliban, Pakistan’s influence in the region has
been greatly reduced.
In
Afghanistan, the attempts to establish a functioning democracy and a strong
central government have failed. The weak
parliament was unable to check the president and his cabinet. The strong
presence of the Taliban and war lords limited the central government’s ability
to control the nation, making the nation politically unstable. The clashes
between competing groups along ethnic and ideological fractures test the country’s
cohesiveness. The new government, consisting of mostly non-Pashtun, cooperated
with India on many infrastructure projects resulting in increases in Indian
soft power. The fear of being encircled by India led Pakistan to support the
Taliban in its fight against the Afghan central government even to the extent
of jeopardizing American support.
In the
post American Afghanistan, the limit of Taliban power will determine the
structure of the Afghan government and regional order. Some fears exist that
the US withdrawal will result in a total collapse of the Afghan nation. Some
vocals of this argument point to the inaction of the world community towards
the Syrian governmental collapse as evidence that no nation will bear the costs
that might be necessary to help the Afghanistan government to survive. These fears
have gained ground as Afghan president Karzai opted for the next Afghan
president to sign the pact that would ensure a unit of US troops in Afghanistan,
jeopardizing American presence beyond 2014.
In the Syrian case, certain powers, such as
Iran, Russia, and China gain strategically from keeping Assad in power despite
its meaning the virtual collapse of the country. In the case of Afghanistan, almost
all regional and global actors would be greatly harmed by the nation’s collapse.
Therefore, even in the absence of American troops, international support for
the Afghan government would prevent it from collapsing. In addition, even
though Taliban elements want to establish their own rule over Afghanistan, they
know that the more active they are, the greater the probability that they will
draw more attention and therefore retribution. Therefore, a sudden collapse of the
existing Afghan state would not be on the interest of any party, including the
Taliban.
One potential scenario for a post 2014
Afghanistan is a continuous fight between the government and the Taliban. The
Afghan population, already tired of instability and corruption, would now face
an insecure future with much less American presence. The Taliban would convince
the population that it succeeded in driving the United States out of Afghanistan;
therefore it is powerful to bring security, stability and rule of law. The Taliban
would intensify its fight against the central government. The region would face
chaos and political instability.
As instability increases, already insufficient
inspection over opium growth and border security would dwindle. Therefore, all
the neighbors would suffer from increased drug trafficking. The conflict in
Afghanistan could spread to neighboring former USSR nations through terrorist
organizations. Those countries are vulnerable to a domino effect, as they do
not have the economic or military power to prevent the spread of
revolutionary-jihadist contagion or manage spillovers of a failed neighbor. The
threat would alarm Russia and deepen its involvement in the region. Though Iran
has provided limited support to Taliban in order to curb American power in
Afghanistan and in the region, the protection of the Shia community and its own
border security interests would force to ramp up its involvement against Taliban.
China would face the risk of losing out its investments in Afghanistan and the potential
of jihadist involvement in Shinjang area. Conflict in Pakistan would be
inevitable as many terrorist organizations operate from bases in the country. While
contributing to the fight against India, some of these organizations have
attacked Pakistani government as well. ISI (Pakistan Secret Service) already declared
that home grown Islamic militants are bigger threat to the integrity of the region
than India. In addition, due to the presence of terrorist organizations,
Pakistan received drone attacks from the United States, and as the US withdraws
from Afghanistan, American reliance on Pakistan will decline and the American threats
on alliance with Taliban will become even more assertive. Therefore, Pakistan
would be harmed by a Taliban exercising power beyond the level of stability. Overall,
all the powers in the region have a self interest in containing the power of the
Taliban.
Another potential scenario after the
withdrawal of American troops is the establishment of a power sharing government
in Afghanistan between central government, the Taliban, and war lords. Such a
situation is suitable for the internal dimensions of Afghanistan, as
geopolitical and ethnic divisions have historically curbed the power of the
central government, resulting in a large degree of independence in the local
governments. According to a power sharing deal, the central government would
remain weak; the Taliban and war lords would be free to exercise power over
their own regional domains. As a consequence, Pakistan, assured by the presence
of the Taliban, would be less worried of an Indian encirclement and therefore reduce
its reflexive support to Taliban in order to focus on its internal security. With
less jihadist presence in Kashmir, the Pakistani foreign policy would become
more independent over India. The presence of the Taliban in a stable
Afghanistan would be welcomed even by its rival India, which has taken
important steps to normalize its ties with Pakistan. India’s security would be
better enhanced by a certain presence of Taliban in a stable Afghanistan and
therefore a less antagonistic Pakistan and less jihadist movement towards
Kashmir rather than having more power in an instable Afghanistan. Energized by
the eased sanctions and withdrawal of the US troops from the region, Iran would
be more likely to expand its soft power in Afghanistan and increase its
economic, social and political support to the central government. In addition,
Iran would benefit from a stable Afghanistan through the repatriation of Afghan
refugees in Iran, improved linkage with Central Asian governments, expanding
assistance in combatting drug trafficking, and protection of Shia minority, as
it considers itself the guardian of Shia. China would also benefit in this scenario
from improved border security, increased soft power and investment opportunities.
In order to ensure stability and prove its leadership, China could use its
leverage on the Asian Development Bank and private sector to contribute to the
economic development.
However, a scenario with a stable but weak
central government could have disadvantages as well. The Afghan central
government would have limited ability to control drug trafficking and terrorist
organizations may grow stronger as there would be little to limit them. The
jihadist conflict might exacerbate along the border with the former Soviet
states. Yet, the problems of a weak central government can be solved relatively
easily compared to problems with instability. Russia could increase its aid to
former USSR nations to stop the penetration of jihadists and halt the spread of
drugs. Iran and China could tighten their border securities. Pakistan and India
could work on a settlement over Kashmir, which would reduce the jihadist intake.
Overall, a stable Afghanistan with a power-sharing arrangement between the
Taliban, the central government, and war lords makes the challenges of the
region more manageable. Therefore, the equilibrium will move towards that
direction.
Salih Yasun
Cleveland State University
Undergraduate Student
yasunsalih@gmail.com
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